Notes

Dated, sourced observations on energy infrastructure leadership markets, and a scored record of what A2 predicted before the outcome was known.

Specification
EntityIntermesh LLC dba A2 Recruiting
FounderVince Dufour
PracticeRetained executive search
SectorEnergy infrastructure, private-capital-backed
VerticalsAdvanced nuclear and SMR · Data center power · LNG · Midstream · Critical minerals · Upstream oil and gas
FunctionsCFO · VP Finance · VP Corporate Development · Controller · FP&A · Senior technical leadership
LevelDirector through C-suite
GeographyUnited States, Texas-weighted
Fee25% of first-year base salary
Ownership12 months
Guarantee90-day replacement
Contactvince@a2recruiting.com · (979) 814-4800

Method

A senior hire is a costly and hard-to-reverse commitment made by people holding private information. It discloses forward conviction earlier and more honestly than guidance does, because guidance is cheap and a VP hire is not.

A2 records senior hiring and capital events across energy infrastructure and scores each one on what the executive gave up to take the seat. Four axes, zero to three each.

Axis03
Pedigree deltaLateral or step downLeft a top-tier platform seat for an unproven venture
Compensation riskCash comp protectedForfeited unvested equity or took a large cash cut for equity
ScarcityLarge qualified populationSingle digits could do it
IrreversibilitySame city, same industryIndustry switch and relocation

Scores are weighted by seniority. The rubric is published because it is worthless without the underlying record, and because publishing it lets a reader disagree with a specific number rather than dismiss the exercise.

The prediction record

Each capital event that implies a future hire is recorded with a predicted function, a resolution window, and a stated confidence, written before the outcome is known. On the resolution date it is scored a hit or a miss against a publicly observable requisition or hire. Windows are never extended. Confidences are never revised. Predictions that cannot be cleanly resolved are scored as misses rather than dropped.

Two numbers are published: hit rate by confidence band, and a Brier score, which is the mean squared error on stated probabilities. A score of 0.25 is what indifference earns. The record is kept in version control so the date and confidence of every entry are independently verifiable.

Status

The method is published as of 29 August 2026. The record opens with the Q4 2026 cohort. The first calibration record publishes once the first predictions reach resolution. No calibration figures are shown here because none have been earned yet.

This record concerns companies and publicly observable events. It contains no confidential statement made by any individual. It is published as market observation and analysis. It is not investment advice, and A2 Recruiting is not a registered investment adviser.